Hausse de la croissance

<br /> France: les CDS sur la dette à un plus haut historique<br /> <br /> Paris (awp/afp) - Les contrats d'assurance contre le non remboursement de la dette (CDS) de la France ont atteint lundi le plus haut niveau de leur histoire, un prix supérieur à celui de plusieurs<br /> pays dont la note est bien inférieure.<br /> <br /> Vers 16H15, les CDS de la France s'affichaient à 106,83 points de base. Cela signifie que pour s'assurer contre le non remboursement de 10 millions de dollars de dette française à un horizon de<br /> cinq ans, un investisseur devra s'acquitter de 106'830 dollars par an d'ici à l'échéance.<br /> <br /> Ce prix est supérieur à celui qui permet de s'assurer contre le non remboursement de la dette du Panama, Etat actuellement noté "BBB-", soit neuf crans de moins que la France, qui bénéficie de la<br /> meilleure note, le fameux "AAA".<br /> <br /> Ce mouvement ne trouvait pas d'écho sur le marché obligataire, les taux des obligations françaises à 10 ans, les OAT, enregistrant un repli, à 3,326% contre 3,394% vendredi à la clôture.<br /> <br /> 9 crans d'un coup ! ça fait pas rire !<br /> <br /> <br />

<br /> bonjour,signerez vous la pétition ? lol<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> Les "économistes atterrés", à l'origine d'un manifeste signé par 2.780 personnes, ont estimé lundi que pour prévenir une crise de la zone euro, il fallait organiser une véritable solidarité entre<br /> les Etats membres et "desserrer l'étau des marchés financiers".<br /> <br /> Dans un communiqué, ces économistes qui veulent débattre des choix de politique économique pris après la crise et remettre en cause "le pouvoir de la finance", proposent deux stratégies, qui<br /> permettraient d'éviter selon eux, un éclatement de la zone euro.<br /> <br /> La première consisterait à "garantir la dette publique" des pays de la zone euro et à ramener les taux d'intérêt des pays du sud au niveau des pays du nord, vers 3%.<br /> <br /> Elle s'articulerait autour de plusieurs mesures, par exemple laisser les Etats se financer directement auprès de la Banque centrale européenne (BCE) à bas taux d'intérêt pour "desserrer le carcan<br /> des marchés financiers", ou faire en sorte que les pays de la zone se portent "garants de la dette de chacun des Etats".<br /> <br /> Il s'agirait encore d'"abaisser les taux d?intérêt exorbitants des titres émis par les pays en difficulté depuis la crise", "faire assumer les pertes des banques en faillite par leurs créanciers"<br /> ou "mettre en place en Europe un prélèvement exceptionnel sur les grosses fortunes".<br /> <br /> Seconde stratégie envisagée: "réduire immédiatement les dettes publiques", en faisant "payer ceux qui ont bénéficié des bulles financières et immobilières".<br /> <br /> Quatre chercheurs sont à l'origine du "manifeste des économistes atterrés": Philippe Askenazy (CNRS), Thomas Coutrot (co-président d?Attac), André Orléan (Ehess) et Henri Sterdyniak (OFCE).<br /> <br /> Depuis sa publication mi-septembre, il a recueilli 2.780 signatures d'économistes, universitaires, ou citoyens, le plus souvent étiquetés à gauche.<br /> <br /> <br />

<br /> French AAA Grade at Risk as Downgrades Sweep Europe<br /> By Paul Dobson and Keith Jenkins - Dec 20, 2010 France risks losing its top AAA grade as Europe’s debt crisis prompts a wave of downgrades that threatens to engulf the region’s highest-rated<br /> borrowers, with Belgium also facing a possible cut, analysts and investors said.<br /> <br /> Moody’s Investors Service said Dec. 15 it may lower Spain’s rating, citing “substantial funding requirements,” and slashed Ireland’s rating by five levels on Dec. 17. Standard & Poor’s is<br /> reviewing its assessments of Ireland, Portugal and Greece. Credit default swaps show it’s more expensive to insure French debt than lower-rated securities from countries such as the Czech Republic<br /> and Chile.<br /> <br /> “Every sovereign may get penalized in the year ahead,” said Toby Nangle, who helps oversee $46 billion as director of asset allocation at Baring Asset Management in London. “It would be a big deal<br /> if France was to have its AAA rating stripped. I don’t think the likelihood of a downgrade is reflected in the market.”<br /> <br /> European Union leaders agreed last week to amend the bloc’s treaties to create a permanent debt-crisis mechanism in 2013 in an effort to stem contagion that started more than a year ago in Greece.<br /> Government bond yields climbed across the region even after Greece and Ireland were rescued and a backstop facility worth about $1 trillion was created.<br /> <br /> “If problems in the euro zone aren’t solved quickly, then the conditions of refinancing will be expensive for these countries and the ratings agencies will do more downgrades,” said Ralf Ahrens,<br /> who helps manage about $20 billion as head of fixed income at Frankfurt Trust. “We already see these dynamics in the market. I see France as a risk.”<br /> <br /> Bondholder Banks<br /> <br /> France’s credit rating is susceptible unless the country makes “meaningful reductions” to its deficit, said Padhraic Garvey, head of developed-market debt strategy at ING Bank NV in Amsterdam. The<br /> nation’s banks are the biggest holders of debt issued by the region’s so-called peripheral countries, posing possible “systemic risks,” added Markus Ernst, a credit strategist at UniCredit SpA in<br /> Munich.<br /> <br /> Costs to insure French government debt trebled this year, reaching a record high of 105 on Nov. 30, according to data provider CMA. Credit default swaps tied French bonds rose 1 basis point to 103<br /> today, compared with 90 basis points for comparable Czech securities. Chilean swaps ended last week at 89 basis points.<br /> <br /> Credit-default swaps tied to the French bonds imply a rating of Baa1, seven steps below its actual top ranking of Aaa at Moody’s, according to the New York-based firm’s capital markets research<br /> group.<br /> <br /> Political Infighting<br /> <br /> Contracts on Portugal imply a B2 rating, 10 levels below its A1 grade, while swaps tied to Spanish bonds trade at Ba3, 11 steps below its Aa1 ranking, data from the Moody’s research group show.<br /> Derivatives protecting Belgian debt imply a rating of Ba1, nine steps below its current rating of Aa1.<br /> <br /> In Belgium, seven political parties involved in coalition talks are sparring over whether to grant more fiscal autonomy for the country’s regions after inconclusive elections in June left it<br /> without a government. The public debt of Belgium is close to 100 percent of gross domestic product, and 65 billion euros ($87 billion) of the nation’s bonds and bills are due to mature next year,<br /> according to data compiled by Bloomberg.<br /> <br /> “Belgium’s prolonged domestic political uncertainty poses risks to its government’s credit standing,” S&P said in its Dec. 14 report that lowered the country’s outlook to “negative” from<br /> “stable.”<br /> <br /> The European Union agreed in October to establish a European Stability Mechanism to deal with nations struggling to meet debt payments. The finance ministers of the 16 nations sharing the euro said<br /> Nov. 28 that “an ESM loan will enjoy preferred-creditor status, junior only” to International Monetary Fund loans.<br /> <br /> S&P Warnings<br /> <br /> The statement, which means bondholders rank behind those emergency loans, prompted S&P to warn it may lower the BB+ rating on Greece and A- long-term rating on Portugal. The decision also<br /> deepened the crisis, Morgan Stanley analysts said.<br /> <br /> “The current stage of the global sovereign debt crisis is the consequence of a demotion of government bonds in the liability structure of governments,” Arnaud Mares, an executive director at Morgan<br /> Stanley and former senior vice president at Moody’s, said in a Dec. 6 investor note.<br /> <br /> Spanish funding needs for “regional governments and the banks make the country susceptible to further episodes of funding stress,” Moody’s analyst Kathrin Muehlbronner said in a Dec. 15 report.<br /> <br /> Moody’s on Greece<br /> <br /> Moody’s placed Greece’s Ba1 bond ratings on review last week for a possible downgrade, citing heightened concerns about the country’s ability to cut its debt to “sustainable levels.”<br /> <br /> Ireland’s credit rating was cut by Moody’s to Baa1 from Aa2 on Dec. 17 and the company said further downgrades are possible as the government struggles to contain losses in the country’s banking<br /> system.<br /> <br /> Irish lawmakers voted last week to accept an 85 billion- euro aid package from European governments and the International Monetary Fund to help stabilize the country’s financial system. Greece<br /> earlier this year became the first euro nation to seek external support.<br /> <br /> <br />